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Trump-Putin Summit: Zelensky Bet, Crypto Ignored |
Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform, has seen a surge in activity as traders place significant bets on the topics President Donald Trump will address during his joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025.
The summit, the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since 2019, has sparked intense speculation, with traders heavily favoring Trump mentioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while largely dismissing the likelihood of him referencing cryptocurrency or Bitcoin.
High Stakes and High Wagers
The meeting, described by Trump as "HIGH STAKES" in a Truth Social post, has drawn nearly $200,000 in combined trading volume across various Polymarket contracts focused on Trump’s remarks.
These markets allow users to bet on whether specific words or phrases will be spoken during the news conference, with outcomes resolved based on official video or audio recordings of the event.
The contracts reflect real-time crowd sentiment, with prices dynamically shifting as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes.
Among the most traded contracts, the term “Zelensky” leads with an 88% implied probability and $37,780 in volume, indicating strong confidence that Trump will reference Ukraine’s leader.
This aligns with the geopolitical context of the summit, which focuses on the ongoing war in Ukraine, though notably without Ukrainian participation—a decision that has drawn criticism from Kyiv and European allies.
Other high-probability terms include “Russia” or “Ukraine” (79%, $15,300 volume), “ceasefire” three or more times (72%, $11,334), and “BRICS” or “NATO” two or more times (68%, $11,487).
In stark contrast, the contract for Trump mentioning “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” has attracted significant attention with over $51,700 in volume but carries only a 3% chance of occurring.
This suggests traders believe Trump is unlikely to bring up cryptocurrencies during the summit, despite their growing relevance in global markets. Other low-probability terms include “Hell” three or more times (28%), “President Xi” (27%), and “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth,” which hover around 40–50%.
Beyond Words: Betting on Optics
Polymarket’s markets extend beyond Trump’s words to the optics of the summit. A separate contract on the duration of the Trump-Putin handshake has drawn over $180,000 in volume.
The most traded outcome is a handshake lasting 10 seconds or longer (24%, $56,092), followed closely by 4–6 seconds (27%) and 2–4 seconds (20%).
A handshake under two seconds is considered the least likely at just 4%. Meanwhile, Kalshi, another prediction market platform, reported a 98% chance of the leaders shaking hands before August 16, underscoring the focus on symbolic gestures.
Speculation also surrounds Trump’s delegation. Polymarket and Kalshi traders initially favored Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but odds later shifted toward Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (75%) and Trump’s associate Steve Witkoff, with Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also confirmed to attend.
These shifting odds highlight the volatility and real-time adjustments in prediction markets as new information emerges.
Geopolitical Context and Market Implications
The Alaska summit, hosted at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, marks the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.
The absence of Ukrainian representation and the Kremlin’s reported economic and territorial demands have heightened the stakes.
Polymarket traders appear skeptical of immediate resolutions, with contracts on a 2025 ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine priced at 38%, and peace deal or territorial concession markets even lower at 23% and 25%, respectively.
The focus on Zelensky in betting markets reflects the ongoing tensions between Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
Recent reports indicate a strained relationship, with Trump criticizing Zelensky for not showing “gratitude” during a February 2025 Oval Office meeting.
Polymarket users have wagered over $500,000 on Zelensky potentially leaving office before July 2025, with a 26% probability, further underscoring the geopolitical uncertainty.
While crypto is largely overlooked in the context of this summit, the broader market implications are notable.
Analysts suggest that any breakthroughs or breakdowns in the talks could influence oil futures and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are sensitive to geopolitical developments.
However, the low probability assigned to Trump mentioning crypto indicates that traders expect the conversation to center on Ukraine and related geopolitical issues rather than digital assets.
Polymarket’s Role in Gauging Sentiment
Polymarket has emerged as a key barometer for public sentiment on political and geopolitical events, with its decentralized platform allowing users to trade on outcomes using cryptocurrency.
The platform’s accuracy in predicting events, such as the confirmation of the Trump-Putin summit (which saw nearly $3 million in wagers), has bolstered its reputation.
As Brian Trunzo, former Vice President at Polygon Labs, noted, “Prediction markets give people a financial motivation for conducting thorough research and making rational analysis before placing their bets, and they provide a much higher level of accuracy versus traditional polling.”
However, Polymarket’s approach has not been without controversy.
The platform has faced scrutiny for its handling of viral and sometimes misleading markets, such as a debunked claim about a WNBA “no bag policy.”
Despite these challenges, its ability to capture real-time sentiment makes it a valuable tool for understanding how traders view high-profile events like the Trump-Putin summit.
Conclusion
As Trump and Putin take the stage in Anchorage, Polymarket traders are betting heavily on references to Zelensky and Ukraine, while largely dismissing the likelihood of crypto being mentioned.
The markets reflect a broader expectation that the summit will focus on geopolitical tensions rather than emerging financial technologies.
With significant trading volumes and dynamic odds, Polymarket continues to offer a unique lens into the crowd’s assessment of global events, even as it navigates the fine line between insight and speculation.